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An empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents


Yip, Chee Yin and Lim, Hock Eam (2012) An empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents. In: International Conference on Fundamental and Applied Sciences 2012, 12th to 14th June 2012, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

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Abstract

Our empirical results show that we can predict GDP growth rate more accurately in continent with fewer large economies, compared to smaller economies like Malaysia. This difficulty is very likely positively correlated with subsidy or social security policies.The stage of economic development and level of competiveness also appears to have interactive effects on this forecast stability.These results are generally independent of the forecasting procedures. Countries with high stability in their economic growth, forecasting by model selection is better than model averaging. Overall forecast weight averaging (FWA) is a better forecasting procedure in most countries.FWA also outperforms simple model averaging (SMA) and has the same forecasting ability as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in almost all countries.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information: AIP Conference Proceedings ISSN:0094-243X
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: College of Arts and Sciences
Depositing User: Dr. Chee Yin Yip
Date Deposited: 23 Oct 2014 07:13
Last Modified: 23 Oct 2014 07:13
URI: http://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/12413

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