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A hybrid simulation approach in developing a risk quantification model for coal procurement in power generation


Ibrahim, Jafni Azhan and Sapiri, Hasimah and Mat Tahar, Razman (2015) A hybrid simulation approach in developing a risk quantification model for coal procurement in power generation. Journal of ICT, 14. pp. 39-56. ISSN 1675-414X

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Official URL: http://jict.uum.edu.my/

Abstract

All energy systems provide some level of security to its consumers.However, the right or optimum level of security is very difficult to assess. In order to make a comparison between the cost of providing energy security and level of security, the quantified risks have to be in the common accounting platform of cost.Then, an optimum level of security and cost can be estimated using appropriate methods.Since no such attempts have been done to compare the risks and the cost in the same platform, i.e. monetary unit, it is unpractical to determine the optimum point between the risks and cost of providing security in any energy systems.The objective of this paper is to present a new hybrid simulation model in risk analysis which computes the total exposure of coal procurement in power generation through the summation of quantified supply shortage risk in monetary terms and the cost of coal procurement. The hybrid simulation model is made up of two main components: 1) Dynamic Risk Calculation Program (DR-P) which was developed in System Dynamics platform for capturing the effect of dynamics behavior of price toward coal procurement risk, and 2) Non-delivery Probability Table Program (NdPT-P) which was developed in Matlab platform for computing all possible shortage level and the probability of shortage in selected coal procurement portfolio.The result from this paper has shown that the risks of coal procurement were increased as the cost of coal procurement were decreased and vice versa.However, the summation of risk and cost which give the total exposure of coal procurement has provided more accurate information for selecting the best coal procurement portfolio option.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Coal procurement, power generation, risk quantification, dynamics simulation, system dynamics.
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Divisions: School of Technology Management & Logistics
Depositing User: Mr. Jafni Azhan Ibrahim
Date Deposited: 24 May 2015 08:50
Last Modified: 14 Apr 2016 03:57
URI: http://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/14312

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