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Does financial development cause economic growth in the ASEAN-4 countries


Abd. Majid, M. Shabri and Mahrizal, , (2007) Does financial development cause economic growth in the ASEAN-4 countries. In: International Economic Conference on Trade and Industry (IECTI) 2007, 3 - 5 December 2007, Bayview Hotel Georgetown, Penang. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

This paper empirically examines the short- and long-run finance-growth nexus during the post-1997 financial crisis in the ASEAN-4 countries (i.e., Indonesia,Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines) by employing battery of times series techniques such as autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, vector error correction model (VECM), variance decompositions (VDCs) and impulseresponse functions (IRFs). Based on the ARDL models, the study documents a long-run equilibrium between economic growth, finance depth, share of investment and inflation. The study also finds that the common sources of economic progress/regress among the countries are price stability and financial development. Granger causality tests based on the VECM further reveals that there are: (i) no causality between finance-growth in Indonesia; the finding in favour of “the independent hypothesis” of Lucas (1988); (ii) a unidirectional causality running from finance to growth in Malaysia, thus supporting “the finance-growth led hypothesis” or “the supply-leading view”; (iii) a bidirectional causality between finance-growth in Thailand, the finding accords with “the feedback hypothesis” or “bidirectional causality view”; and (iv) a unidirectional causality stemming from growth to finance in the Philippines, the finding echoes with “the growth-led finance hypothesis” or “the demand following view” of Robinson (1952). Based on the VDCs and IRFs, the study discovers that the variations in the economic growth rely very much on its own innovations. If policy makers want to promote growth in the ASEAN-4 countries, priority should be given for long run policies, i.e., the enhancement of existing financial institutions both in the banking sector and stock market.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information: Organized by Faculty of Economics, Universiti Utara Malaysia
Uncontrolled Keywords: Financial development; Growth, ARDL; Multivariate causality; Impulse-response functions; ASEAN-4.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: College of Arts and Sciences
Depositing User: Mrs. Juwita Johari
Date Deposited: 21 Feb 2011 12:46
Last Modified: 21 Feb 2011 12:46
URI: http://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/2435

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