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Stationarity analysis of macroeconomic variables in ASEAN - Pacific region and their implication for trade and industrial development


Sun, Puyang (2007) Stationarity analysis of macroeconomic variables in ASEAN - Pacific region and their implication for trade and industrial development. In: International Economic Conference on Trade and Industry (IECTI) 2007, 3 - 5 December 2007, Bayview Hotel Georgetown, Penang. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

The countries in the ASEAN-Pacific region sharply show a strong upward trend in many aspects of their macroeconomic performance. However, exogenous international shocks can displace a developing country from its long-run stationary growth path. This paper attempts to investigate the existence of Endogenously Determined Structural Breaks of several aspects of economic development by using time series annual data during the period from 1960s to 2000s for countries in ASEAN-Pacific Region—Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia. The paper will concentrate on three different models—Additive Outlier Model, Innovational Outlier I Model and Innovational Outlier II Model to scrutinize the existence of potential structural break points in the trend. The paper considers four main indicators of macroeconomic development—Real GDP, Trading Openness, Structure on Investment and Financial Growth,. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate whether those potential structural break points did affect the long-run growth in the trend of time series in the ASEAN-Pacific Region. According to empirical estimation and regression, most of the results demonstrate three possible structural break points in this region: around 1979 (oil crisis), around mid-1980s (economic recession), and around 1997 (financial crisis). It shows through econometric methods that the long-run stationarity of macroeconomic development in most selected countries is not affected by these potential structural break points. Since this is mainly due to the successful adjustment of economic policies, especially for trading and financial sectors, the positive adjustments of policies in trading and financial sectors have been able to maintain long-run sustained growth of macroeconomic development in ASEAN-Pacific regions. This paper concludes that the symbiotic relationship between macro and micro economic variables has worked well in the region allowing for sustained growth in spite of exogenous shocks and structural breaks.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information: Organized by Faculty of Economics, Universiti Utara Malaysia
Uncontrolled Keywords: stationary tests, structural breaks, economic growth, financial and trade development
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: UNSPECIFIED
Depositing User: Mrs. Juwita Johari
Date Deposited: 22 Feb 2011 09:42
Last Modified: 22 Feb 2011 09:42
URI: http://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/2488

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