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Terms of trade shocks and structural adjustments in Kazakhstan


Kapsalyamova, Zhanna (2007) Terms of trade shocks and structural adjustments in Kazakhstan. In: International Economic Conference on Trade and Industry (IECTI) 2007, 3 - 5 December 2007, Bayview Hotel Georgetown, Penang. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Kazakhstan is a natural resources abundant country with the large amount of stocks of crude petroleum and natural gas. Favorable conditions at the world hydrocarbon markets, building of the oil pipelines led to the increase of the export of crude petroleum and natural gas abroad. This constituted the main factor of the positive and sustained growth in Kazakhstan during the last eight years with 9.8% of economic growth per annual on average. The paper constitutes an attempt to quantitatively evaluate the effects of the two simulated oil price shocks on the structural adjustments in the economy using a multisectoral static CGE model. The paper delivers two main results. First, the economy responds asymmetrically to the oil price shocks, although the magnitude of the oil price changes is the same, but different in signs. Second, paper represents a clear indication of the vulnerability of the Kazakhstani economy to the world oil price changes and thus represents a clear evidence of the possible Dutch disease consequences for the Kazakhstani economy.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information: Organized by Faculty of Economics, Universiti Utara Malaysia
Uncontrolled Keywords: Oil price shock, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, social accounting matrix, Dutch disease.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
Divisions: College of Arts and Sciences
Depositing User: Mrs. Juwita Johari
Date Deposited: 27 Feb 2011 02:14
Last Modified: 27 Feb 2011 02:14
URI: http://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/2587

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