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Predicting the future potential of tourism in Malaysia using the delphi method


Mohd Shariff, Nurhazani and Kayat, Kalsom and Abd Shukor, Suryati and Abdul Razak, Norhanim and Zainol, Noor Azimin and Mohd Nor, Nor Ashikin (2007) Predicting the future potential of tourism in Malaysia using the delphi method. In: Readings on tourism and hospitality. Universiti Utara Malaysia Press, Sintok, pp. 157-173. ISBN 9789833827169

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Abstract

The policy makers and tourism planners need both quantitative and qualitative information in order to formulate future tourism strategies at the national and international level.Currently, information obtained from the qualitative study on tourism is not sufficient enough to forecast the future potential of the tourism industry. Thus, the main objective of this study is to predict the future potential of tourism in Malaysia from 2003 through to 2010, using a qualitative method known as the Delphi method.20 tourism experts are selected as the panel judges in this study.Their opinions and perceptions in predicting the future potential of tourism are important as they represented most of the tourism sectors in Malaysia.The findings of the study indicated that the Delphi method is an effective qualitative method in predicting the future potential of tourism in Malaysia since a consensus among the panel judges was reached only in a second round of the survey.Thus, their agreement also indicated that the Delphi method is an effective measurement tool.The panel judges also agreed that the community value systems and the tourism structures would increase in parallel with the growth of tourism in Malaysia from 2003 through to 2010.In addition, they also agreed that Malaysian would become an international tourism destination by the year 2010.

Item Type: Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords: Tourism, potential future, delphi method
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
Divisions: College of Arts and Sciences
Depositing User: Prof. Madya Dr. Nurhazani Mohd Shariff
Date Deposited: 29 Aug 2012 02:25
Last Modified: 29 Aug 2012 02:25
URI: http://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/5873

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