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Modeling demand of telecommunication technologies in Malaysia

Mahat, Nor Idayu and Ang, Chooi Leng and Engku Abu Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri and Ramli, Razamin and Abd Karim, Mohd Zaini and Pang, Lih Mey and Alias, Mohd Yusof (2010) Modeling demand of telecommunication technologies in Malaysia. In: 2nd International Conference on Quantitative Sciences and Its Applications (ICOQSIA 2010), 2 - 4 November 2010, The Gurney Resort Hotel & Residences Penang, Malaysia.

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Forecasting the demand of telecommunication technologies is a crucial task for authorised spectrum management and service providers due to fast development and changes of these technologies. A good forecasting model is helpful to portray Malaysian's acceptance towards communication facilities. Thus, this information can be fully utilised to structure some strategies to ensure Malaysians are benefited from the technologies no matter where they are. This paper reports on a study aimed to determine the telecommunication technologies demand among Malaysians and attempts to model such demand mathematically. Four telecommunication technologies investigated are direct exchange line, cellular phone, internet dial-up and internet broadband. Some statistical models studied include simple linear regression, quadratic regression,growth curve model and Holt's trend corrected exponential smoothing model. This study discovers that different telecommunication technologies indicate different patterns of demand with different acceleration. the penetration rate of cellular phone is suitable to be modelled by the Holt's method and the remaining technologies are suggested to perform quadratic behavior.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects: T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Divisions: College of Arts and Sciences
Depositing User: Dr. Nor Idayu Mahat
Date Deposited: 29 May 2012 07:59
Last Modified: 29 May 2012 07:59

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